My winning trades on this day consisted of only one trade, the other 2 trades of the day had been losers. If you want to see them click here.
As discussed in my losing trades the USD/JPY is actually in an overall uptrend but I was looking for a scalp trade and for this particular trade I did use my continuation strategy as a basis for entering this trend.
The below image shows the real time image of the entry.
I entered this trade where I did because there had been two lower highs and the second lower high (where my stop loss is shown) was at a level where price had previously found support.
On this one minute time frame the probability from my perspective was more likely than not going to result in a downside move. We had the 200 period moving average hit twice and on both attempts it failed. That coupled with the second lower high rejection was enough for me to take the entry where I did. I could have waited for that second lower low to be printed, which it subsequently did but there was enough evidence in place that there was a momentum to the downside.
You can see immediately after my entry there was strong downside continuation. See the next image below that shows where my profit taking was.
In hindsight I probably exited too early. However, this was a rapid move down on what was only ever intended as a very short term play because the USD/JPY is in an overall uptrend on the higher time frames.
I know why I didn't follow my profit taking rules, which is to close up to 50% of my position when I get to over 3R. My previous losing trades did impact my emotional state and I knew that exiting in full would actually put my day into overall profit. I am not too disappointed as nobody can catch the exact point to exit. I closed this trade at 4.2R for this time frame's risk.
In terms of transparency my statement of winners and losers for today is outlined below. As detailed at the beginning of the blog post there is a link to see the details of the two losing trades mentioned in the summary below.
Trade Clearly!
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